Featured Publications

Western Europe's political risk landscape has shifted; not through democratic breakdown, but through fragmentation. As coalitions grow more complex and short-lived, investors face two concrete threats: policy decisions that stall during government formation, and policy commitments that don't survive the next election. Drawing on recent experience in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark, this analysis maps the pressure points, identifies the wedge issues driving coalition fractures, and sets out what the new governing normal means for investment decisions across the region.

From a seven-year-old refugee crossing the Aegean Sea in a small boat to the most sensitive national security post in the country, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius’s rise has been anything but ordinary. This is the story of how she became the Minister of Defence of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

As we move into 2026, I want to take a few pages to reflect on one of the defining trends of today’s geopolitical landscape– a throughline from nearly all of my recent conversations with policymakers, academics, and civil society organizations

NATO’s nuclear deterrent remains credible in 2025, but it now has to manage overlapping crises rather than a single stand‑off. With Russia’s nuclear signalling, China’s rapid build‑up, and rising risks from Iran, North Korea and new technologies, effective deterrence depends less on warhead counts and more on modernisation, clear signalling, and allied cohesion as 2026 approaches.

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, AI is already rewiring the incentive landscape of elections.